The crisis of the Middle East economy in 2050
The Middle
East region is one of the strategic areas of the world, due to geostrategic
conditions, plays a significant role in shaping the world of tomorrow.
It is
essential to study this crisis area that plays a major role in the future
economy of the World & Asia.
The
countries of the Middle East have tremendous changes since the advent of the
human civilization till now,
Colonization
by European countries, the discovery of oil, the modernization of the eastern
countries, the formation of a state of Israel like a cancer tumor in the Middle
East, the Cold War, and finally the great global and regional games, have
caused this region to always be in crisis.
Today, the
countries of the Middle East are in varying degrees; from complete peace to
civil wars, from great economic power to below of the poverty line, from the
highest population density to the lowest population density, from the center of
the emergence of Judaism and Jesus to the center of the emergence of Islam.
The future
of the Middle East economy looks very critical, water
reducing, the end of oil era; population density, immigration, and most importantly regional and global wars are causing
these crises.
1 - Water
reduction.
For the
accursed deserts of the Middle East, water is the most serious issue in the
future.
The problem
of water is so difficult, that other problems like poverty and wars seem
smaller.
Today, politicians
cannot improve their policy, while ignoring the environment and climate change.
Research has
shown that the first Syria war sparks were due to massive drought and the
influx of more than a million farmers into suburbs such as Homs and Damascus,
Illegal settlements, poor
infrastructure, widespread unemployment, and the government's lack of control,
over a few years have devastated a civilization.
Iran, Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Jordan are facing similar risks.
Unfortunately,
no one of the Middle East countries has taken preventive measures because of
water reduction.
Israel is
the only country that has fought against Lack of fresh water; this country was
close to losing only its water source in 2008 after a ten years drought, but now have fresh water, more than of needs.
Jordan and
Israel are also running a $ 900 million joint fresh water project in the Red
Sea area, which is intended to provide water for the two countries and
Palestine.
Under the
Oslo Accords of 1995, Israel provides water for the West strip, which Of
course, the Palestinians receive much less water than they needs.
2 - The end of the oil era.
Over the
past few years, oil prices have fallen to its lowest price, which has been a
source of alarm for countries producing and exporting oil that has no other
wealth without oil.
In Saudi
Arabia, despite the abundance of oil, unemployment is one of the major
challenges facing the country, it is possible that by the year 2030, Saudi
Arabia's oil reserves will end, which this country is not prepared for this
condition, This concern is not only for Saudi Arabia, but also for other Middle
Eastern countries like the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq.
Petroleum
companies believe that by 2030, daily oil consumption will increase, from 89
million barrels per day to 104 million barrels per day, which is a completely
false idea, Because the propagation of electric and solar vehicles, the
propagation of the solar power system, the expansion of the nuclear energy
system, the expansion of frugal engines, the production of solar planes, solar
and gas ships, solar system trains and metros, which will cause decline the
price of oil in the future years.
The
countries of the Middle East, which have the biggest income from oil sales,
will face to major economic problems, If oil prices drop or oil wells dry up.
3 –
Population Density
Population
density is another problem that the Middle East countries are faced it; the region's population in 2013 was 394309000 people, which
may reach more than 550,000,000 people by the year 2050, so housing shortage,
water shortages, food shortages, shortages of agricultural lands, will cause
into another crisis on the region.
In the
underdeveloped countries, population density is causing poverty, and poverty is
one of the factors contributing to the formation of terrorist groups such as
ISIS, Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Unemployed
and illiterate youth that are not aware of the world and from their own Islam,
will soon be attracted to such terrorist groups for earning enough food and
money, these young are thinking, which fight for defending of Islam, but they
don't know they are led from non-Islamic sources.
If the
rulers of these countries do not control the youth, it is possible that in the
future there will be hundreds of terrorist groups in this area that will be
worse than from Al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS.
4 – Immigration.
Climate
change and poverty are two factors that will be bothersome in many parts of the
world in the future.
Climate
change causes the ice of the poles to melt, and the sea level rises, with
rising water levels many countries of the world will go down under the water, Therefore,
the people of this countries will emigrate, these emigrations will result to
violence and poverty; these climate change and violence also will be a big
problems for the Middle East countries.
At the
moment, we are witnessing violent and difficult conditions in the Middle East
that have led to a wave of immigration, Given these migrations from the Middle
East and escaping the harsh and dangerous conditions, these countries will lose
its elites and work forces, Which leads to a weakening of the economy of the
region.
if the
leaders of these countries don't pay attention to these conditions, the
immigration problems will be a big problems for the middle east region.
5 -
Regional and global wars.
After that
Saddam Hussein gone away from power, Iraq seemed to turn into a quiet,
democratic, economic and powerful country, but unfortunately, the interventions
of Iran, the United States, Britain,
Saudi Arabia and Israel, turned this country into hell for Iraqis. Saddam
Hussein's time was a thousand times better than from today.
In the
future, there is no clear picture of this country, regional wars, world's great
military powers war, religious wars and separatist wars can to keep this
country for a lot of years in crisis.
After the
Arab Spring, People were hoped that the Middle East would have democracy,
peace, and economy. But the formation of the ISIS terrorist group by the United
States, Britain and Israel did not changed people's dream to reality, and made
the region worse.
The Middle
East experts, after the analysis has come to the conclusion, that Israel and
Iran may begin a major war next years, they say Iran has already stepped up its
activities in the region, IRGC forces participate in the Syrian war, and Iran
supports Hezbollah groups in Lebanon.
The Israeli
army trapped Iranian drone aircraft on its territory, and then Israeli forces
struck Iran's targets in Syria, In response Syria's air defenses forces,
attacked to Israeli F-16 plane which crashed in Syria territory.
Iran's
support from the Houthi forces in a war with Yemeni forces, which supported by
Saudi Arabia and its allies, indicates that Iran and Saudi Arabia would facing
to a direct war in the near future.
Iranian
leaders want to begin war with Israel, for deceiving of Iran people, because
these leaders want to make the people's minds distract from economic problems
in these wars.
…………
Today, the people of the Middle East are obligated to end the power of their inefficient leaders, or pray for god to grant merciful, faithful, and
independent leaders for them; such as Saddam Hussein, Malik Faisal, Jamal Abdel
Nasser, etc, to be people's leaders in the future, to get rid from the current
leaders, which are the slaves of Britain, America and Israel, otherwise they
will have sad life in the future.
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